Happy Triple Threat Thursday and Happy New Year! 🎉
Here’s one Signal to notice, one thing to Spark growth and one Shift to consider.
This week's theme: False stability in revenue
📡 Signal — What’s Changing
Why Referral-Dependent Growth Feels Safer Than It Is
Referrals are quietly becoming the business equivalent of a security blanket.
What’s changing isn’t referrals themselves.
It’s how much weight companies are letting them carry.
As teams head into 2026 planning, many leaders feel stable about revenue because referrals are still coming in. Peer groups. Former clients. Longstanding relationships. Enough inbound that nothing feels urgent.
What’s different right now is timing.
Early-year plans are being locked in. Headcount, spend, targets, and tooling decisions are getting made based on how things feel today. And referrals make things feel safer than they actually are.
In planning conversations this month, I’ve watched teams forecast growth assuming referral flow continues unchanged. When you pause and ask what would happen if two referral sources slowed at the same time, there’s usually no clear answer.
Not because people are careless.
Because the blanket has been working.
Why this is worth noticing:
Referrals don’t fail loudly. They mask fragility quietly. They hide weak positioning, inconsistent follow-up, and unclear handoffs until pressure shows up.
By the time referrals slow, it’s too late to “decide” to build a system. You’re already reacting.
So what to do about it now:
Use this moment, while referrals are still flowing, to see what they’re covering up. That’s the window.
What’s changing isn’t referrals themselves.
It’s how much weight companies are letting them carry.
As teams head into 2026 planning, many leaders feel stable about revenue because referrals are still coming in. Peer groups. Former clients. Longstanding relationships. Enough inbound that nothing feels urgent.
What’s different right now is timing.
Early-year plans are being locked in. Headcount, spend, targets, and tooling decisions are getting made based on how things feel today. And referrals make things feel safer than they actually are.
In planning conversations this month, I’ve watched teams forecast growth assuming referral flow continues unchanged. When you pause and ask what would happen if two referral sources slowed at the same time, there’s usually no clear answer.
Not because people are careless.
Because the blanket has been working.
Why this is worth noticing:
Referrals don’t fail loudly. They mask fragility quietly. They hide weak positioning, inconsistent follow-up, and unclear handoffs until pressure shows up.
By the time referrals slow, it’s too late to “decide” to build a system. You’re already reacting.
So what do I do now?
Use this moment, while referrals are still flowing, to see what they’re covering up. That’s the window.
⚡ Spark — What to Try This Week
How to Stress-Test a Referral-Heavy Revenue Plan
This isn’t about replacing referrals. It’s about understanding risk.
Pull your last ten closed deals.
Mark which ones came from referrals or warm introductions.
Then ask one question:
If that flow dropped by half, what would replace it?
If the answer is vague or theoretical, that’s not a problem to solve today. It’s a signal to pay attention to.
If you want to make it concrete, run this live with your leadership team. Take your current forecast and remove your top two referral sources. Ask where demand comes from next. Capture the gap and assign one owner to close it this quarter.
You’re not trying to eliminate referrals.
You’re trying to make sure they’re not doing the system’s job.
🔄 Shift — How to Rethink It
Referrals Are Proof of Relationships, Not Proof of a System
Relationships are valuable. They’re just not predictable.
Referrals smooth revenue. They don’t stabilize it. Stability comes from repeatable demand that shows up without personal leverage. When referrals do too much work, teams delay fixing the parts of the system that actually matter because nothing feels broken.
That’s why this is dangerous.
Not because referrals disappear.
Because they delay action until you’re under pressure.
Treat referrals as upside.
Build your baseline without them.
Let the system carry the weight.
📚 Evidence Worth Reviewing
🔗 The death of referral-driven growth
Explains why agencies that rely on referrals can be blind to pipeline fragility because referrals often hide weaknesses until it’s too late.
🔗 Why strategic planning for 2026 is shifting
How organizations are being pushed to reframe planning beyond siloed assumptions and cosmetic metrics, and tie investments to outcomes rather than comfort signals.
🔗 Referral marketing trends and where trust really matters in 2026
Why referrals still matter and what they actually signal about trust rather than demand strength.
📈 TL;DR
Referrals make growth feel safe. Systems are what make it durable.
📈 One Question
If referrals slowed next quarter, what would actually drive demand?
Reply and tell me.
Thanks for reading Triple Threat. See you next Thursday with another Signal, Spark, and Shift.
— Alexandria Ohlinger
p.s. If this helped you think sharper or move faster, share it with someone who builds the way you do. And if you want more practical insight between issues, connect with me on LinkedIn.